Market Watch - A Year in The Canadian Housing Market.

Housing market trends continue to diverge considerably among regions along four general themes: British Columbia; the Greater Golden Horseshoe; oil and natural resource dependent provinces; and everywhere else.

In Ontario, housing market sentiment has sidelined more buyers than was previously anticipated following changes to provincial housing policies aimed at reining in housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region announced in April. Activity has begun to show tentative signs of stabilizing among markets in the region but is down sharply since March amid a rapid shift in housing market balance and increased cautiousness among homebuyers. Because the region is home to a quarter of the Canadian population, changes in sales activity there has a large influence on results for the province and nationally.

In British Columbia, activity appears to be stabilizing somewhere in between the highs of early 2016 and the lows of late 2016 and early 2017. Meanwhile, sales activity is still running at lower levels while supply remains elevated in the natural resource-intensive provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. This has resulted in somewhat softer price trends in the two western provinces and more pronounced price declines in Newfoundland and Labrador.

To varying degrees, housing markets in Manitoba, Northern and Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island had a breakout year in 2016, with rising sales drawing down previously elevated levels of supply. Inventories in these regions have continued to decline this year.

Ontario - GTA REALTORS® Release November Stats

Toronto - December 5, 2017 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,374 transactions through TREB's MLS® System in November 2017. This result was up compared to October 2017, bucking the regular seasonal trend. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down by 13.3% compared to November 2016.

New listings entered into TREB's MLS® System in November 2017 amounted to 14,349 – up by 37.2% compared to November 2016, when the supply of listings was very low from a historical perspective.

"We have seen an uptick in demand for ownership housing in the GTA this fall, over and above the regular seasonal trend. Similar to the Greater Vancouver experience, the impact of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan and particularly the foreign buyer tax may be starting to wane. On top of this, it is also possible that the upcoming changes to mortgage lending guidelines, which come into effect in January, have prompted some households to speed up their home buying decision," said Mr. Syrianos.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price was up by 8.4% on a year-over-year basis in November 2017. The average selling price for all home types combined was down by two% compared to November 2016, due in large part to a smaller share of detached home sales versus last year. On a year-to-date basis, the average selling price was up by 13.4% compared to the same period last year. High-density home types continued to lead the way in terms of price growth, with the average condominium apartment price up by double-digits compared to November 2016.

"Changes in market conditions have not been uniform across market segments. In line with insights from consumer polling undertaken by Ipsos in the spring, we are still seeing seller's market conditions for townhouses and condominium apartments in many neighbourhoods versus more balanced market conditions for detached and semi-detached houses. We will have more insights to share about consumer intentions for 2018 at the end of January when TREB releases its third annual Market Year in Review and Outlook report," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

Ottawa, December 5, 2017 -- Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,239 residential properties in November through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System compared with 992 in November 2016, an increase of 24.9%. The five-year average for November sales is 1,001.

“November numbers are upholding the robust year we have been experiencing in the real estate market in 2017,” Rick Eisert, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Boards states. “Both residential sales and condo sales continue to steadily increase.”

November’s sales included 294 in the condominium property class and 945 in the residential property class. “This is not surprising though,” Eisert remarks. “The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution’s (OSFI) announcement regarding the new stress tests for low- ratio borrowers may have buyers rushing into the market before the stricter mortgage regulations come into play in January 2018. If this keeps up, I expect December could be a busier than usual holiday season for REALTORS®.”

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in November in the Ottawa area was $418,354, an increase of 3.2% over November 2016. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $257,212, a decrease of 7.6% over November 2016. The Board cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price and conditions will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

“It is crucial in a market that is moving quickly, such as the one we are experiencing, to ensure you are pricing your property correctly. Having the guidance and market knowledge of a REALTOR® is essential for home buyers and home sellers,” suggests Eisert.

“The most active price point in the residential market is the $300,000 to $450,000 range, accounting for 46% of the market. While the most active price point in the condo market, between $150,000 and $275,000, accounts for 66% of the market,” says Eisert. “In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 2,821 properties since the beginning of the year.”

British Columbia  - Metro Vancouver continues to experience above-average demand and below-average supply

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,795 in November 2017, a 26.2% increase from the 2,214 sales recorded in November 2016, and a 7.5% decrease compared to October 2017 when 3,022 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 17% above the 10-year November sales average.

“We’re seeing steady demand in today’s market. Home buyer activity is operating above our long-term averages, particularly in our townhome and condominium markets,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said.

There were 4,109 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in November 2017. This represents a 30.6% increase compared to the 3,147 homes listed in November 2016 and a 9.5% decrease compared to October 2017 when 4,539 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,747, a 4.3% increase compared to November 2016 (8,385) and a 4.3% decrease compared to October 2017 (9,137).

“While we’re seeing more listings enter the market today than we saw at this time last year, we have a long way to go before our home listing inventory rises back to more historically typical levels,” Oudil said.

The sales-to-active-listings ratio for November 2017 is 32%, which is up three% since September 2017. By property type, the ratio is 15.9% for detached homes (up one% since September 2017), 36.4% for townhomes (down six% since September 2017), and 67.8% for condominiums (up seven% since September 2017).

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12% mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,046,900. This represents a 14% increase over November 2016 and a 0.4% increase compared to October 2017.

Sales of detached properties in November 2017 reached 841, a 31.8% increase from the 638 detached sales recorded in November 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,608,000. This represents a 6.1% increase from November 2016 and a 0.1% decrease compared to October 2017.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,508 in November 2017, a 25.7% increase compared to the 1,200 sales in November 2016. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $648,200. This represents a 23.9% increase from November 2016 and a one% increase compared to October 2017.

Attached property sales in November 2017 totalled 446, an 18.6% increase compared to the 376 sales in November 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $805,200. This represents a 17.9% increase from November 2016 and a 0.3% increase compared to October 2017.